Exploring non-linear transition pathways in social-ecological systems

Tipping point dynamics are fundamental drivers for sustainable transition pathways of social-ecological systems (SES). Current research predominantly analyzes how crossing tipping points causes regime shifts, however, the analysis of potential transition pathways from these social and ecological tipping points is often overlooked. In this paper, we analyze transition pathways and the potential outcomes that these may lead to via a stylized model of a system composed of interacting agents exploiting resources and, by extension, the overall ecosystem. Interactions between the social and the ecological system are based on a perception-exploitation framework. We show that the presence of tipping points in SES may yield counter-intuitive social-ecological transition pathways. For example, the high perception of an alarming ecological state among agents can provide short-term ecological benefits, but can be less effective in the long term, compared to a low-perception condition. This work also highlights how understanding non-linear interactions is critical for defining suitable transition pathways of any SES

Transnational corporations and the challenge of biosphere stewardship

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordSustainability within planetary boundaries requires concerted action by individuals, governments, civil society and private actors. For the private sector, there is concern that the power exercised by transnational corporations generates, and is even central to, global environmental change. Here, we ask under which conditions transnational corporations could either hinder or promote a global shift towards sustainability. We show that a handful of transnational corporations have become a major force shaping the global intertwined system of people and planet. Transnational corporations in agriculture, forestry, seafood, cement, minerals and fossil energy cause environmental impacts and possess the ability to influence critical functions of the biosphere. We review evidence of current practices and identify six observed features of change towards 'corporate biosphere stewardship', with significant potential for upscaling. Actions by transnational corporations, if combined with effective public policies and improved governmental regulations, could substantially accelerate sustainability efforts.Beijer FoundationErling-Persson Family FoundationMarianne and Marcus Wallenberg FoundationWalton Family FoundationDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationGordon and Betty Moore FoundationMistra: The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Researc

Winter Bird Assemblages in Rural and Urban Environments: A National Survey

Urban development has a marked effect on the ecological and behavioural traits of many living organisms, including birds. In this paper, we analysed differences in the numbers of wintering birds between rural and urban areas in Poland. We also analysed species richness and abundance in relation to longitude, latitude, human population size, and landscape structure. All these parameters were analysed using modern statistical techniques incorporating species detectability. We counted birds in 156 squares (0.25 km2 each) in December 2012 and again in January 2013 in locations in and around 26 urban areas across Poland (in each urban area we surveyed 3 squares and 3 squares in nearby rural areas). The influence of twelve potential environmental variables on species abundance and richness was assessed with Generalized Linear Mixed Models, Principal Components and Detrended Correspondence Analyses. Totals of 72 bird species and 89,710 individual birds were recorded in this study. On average (±SE) 13.3 ± 0.3 species and 288 ± 14 individuals were recorded in each square in each survey. A formal comparison of rural and urban areas revealed that 27 species had a significant preference; 17 to rural areas and 10 to urban areas. Moreover, overall abundance in urban areas was more than double that of rural areas. There was almost a complete separation of rural and urban bird communities. Significantly more birds and more bird species were recorded in January compared to December. We conclude that differences between rural and urban areas in terms of winter conditions and the availability of resources are reflected in different bird communities in the two environments

Instabilities and robust control in natural resource management

Most renewable natural resources exhibit marked demographic and environmental stochasticities, which are exarcebated in management decisions by the uncertainty regarding the choice of an appropriate model to describe system dynamics. Moreover, demand and supply analysis often indicates the presence of instabilities and multiple equilibria, which may lead to management problems that are intensified by uncertainty on the evolution of the resource stock. In this paper the fishery management problem is used as an example to explore the potential of robust optimal control, where the objective is to choose a harvesting rule that will work under a range of admissible specifications for the stock-recruitment equation. The paper derives robust harvesting rules leading to a unique equilibrium, which could be helpful in the design of policy instruments such as robust quota systems.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Early Warning Signals for Critical Transitions: A Generalized Modeling Approach

Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach through several examples, including a previously published fisheries model. We regard our method as complementary to existing early warning signals, taking an approach of intermediate complexity between model-free approaches and fully parameterized simulations. One potential advantage of our approach is that, under appropriate conditions, it may reduce the amount of time series data required for a robust early warning signal

Urbanization, Migration, and Adaptation to Climate Change

This is the author accepted manuscript. the final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordClimate change is reshaping the comparative advantage of regions and hence driving migration flows, principally toward urban areas. Migration has multiple benefits and costs in both origin and destination regions. Coordinated policies that recognize how and why people move can reduce future costs and facilitate adaptation to climate change both within borders and internationally.Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesInternational Development Research Center, Ottow

An invitation for more research on transnational corporations and the biosphere

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recor

Tourism and water inequity in Bali: A social-ecological systems analysis

This paper is a social-ecological systems (SES) analysis of tourism and water inequity in Bali. It uses Elinor Ostrom’s SES model to look at the particular niche of Bali’s tourism and water nexus. Re-analysis of previous qualitative research revealed that the vulnerability of the SES was due to numerous characteristics. In particular, user groups are highly diverse, transient and stratified, thereby inhibiting communication and knowledge sharing. This, in combination with weak governance systems and the economic power of the tourism industry, interact to affect declining water resources and the iniquitous impact of this. Whilst there are obvious indications that Bali’s water resources are over stretched, there is no feedback loop to the institutional structures that would help enable appropriate responses from the user groups or governance system

Earth stewardship: Shaping a sustainable future through interacting policy and norm shifts

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordTransformation toward a sustainable future requires an earth stewardship approach to shift society from its current goal of increasing material wealth to a vision of sustaining built, natural, human, and social capital-equitably distributed across society, within and among nations. Widespread concern about earth's current trajectory and support for actions that would foster more sustainable pathways suggests potential social tipping points in public demand for an earth stewardship vision. Here, we draw on empirical studies and theory to show that movement toward a stewardship vision can be facilitated by changes in either policy incentives or social norms. Our novel contribution is to point out that both norms and incentives must change and can do so interactively. This can be facilitated through leverage points and complementarities across policy areas, based on values, system design, and agency. Potential catalysts include novel democratic institutions and engagement of non-governmental actors, such as businesses, civic leaders, and social movements as agents for redistribution of power. Because no single intervention will transform the world, a key challenge is to align actions to be synergistic, persistent, and scalable

Urban and rural habitats differ in number and type of bird feeders and in bird species consuming supplementary food

Bird feeding is one of the most widespread direct interactions between man and nature, and this has important social and environmental consequences. However, this activity can differ between rural and urban habitats, due to inter alia habitat structure, human behaviour and the composition of wintering bird communities. We counted birds in 156 squares (0.25 km(2) each) in December 2012 and again in January 2013 in locations in and around 26 towns and cities across Poland (in each urban area, we surveyed 3 squares and also 3 squares in nearby rural areas). At each count, we noted the number of bird feeders, the number of bird feeders with food, the type of feeders, additional food supplies potentially available for birds (bread offered by people, bins) and finally the birds themselves. In winter, urban and rural areas differ in the availability of food offered intentionally and unintentionally to birds by humans. Both types of food availability are higher in urban areas. Our findings suggest that different types of bird feeder support only those species specialized for that particular food type and this relationship is similar in urban and rural areas. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11356-015-4723-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users